Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.025
- 42.0%Success rate41.5%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- +0.59CPOE-0.27
- 41.9%Third-down rate37.1%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.66Points / drive1.80
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 25/36 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 97 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/34 | 188 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 12 | 81 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.49