Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutBen RoethlisbergerQBRight Shoulder· Limited
- OutByron LeftwichQBRibs· DNP
- OutLaMarr WoodleyLBAnkle· DNP
- OutMike AdamsTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJerricho CotcheryWRRibs· Limited
- QuestionableWillie ColonTKnee· Limited
- ProbableAntonio BrownWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableCasey HamptonDTIllness· Full
- ProbableMax StarksTBack· Full
- ProbableTroy PolamaluSCalf· Full
Ravens
- OutJimmy SmithCBAbdomen· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulEd DicksonTEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableChris JohnsonCBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableDannell EllerbeLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionablePernell McPheeDEThigh· Limited
- ProbableJacoby JonesWRAnkle· DNP
- ProbableBernard PollardSChest· Limited
- ProbableEd ReedSShoulder· Limited
- ProbableAnquan BoldinWRKnee· Full
- ProbableCorey GrahamCBIllness· Full
- ProbableDennis PittaTENeck· Full
- ProbableTerrell SuggsLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTerrence CodyDTElbow· Full
- ProbableTorrey SmithWRThigh· Full
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.025
- 42.0%Success rate41.5%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- +0.59CPOE-0.27
- 41.9%Third-down rate37.1%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.66Points / drive1.80
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:42 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 7:12 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 5:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 3:22 | 9 | 40 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| PIT | Q2 13:52 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 12:03 | 8 | 29 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q2 9:34 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q2 7:56 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q2 6:03 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q2 5:16 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| PIT | Q2 3:16 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| BAL | Q2 0:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| BAL | Q3 11:05 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 13–13 |
| PIT | Q3 8:06 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| BAL | Q3 7:00 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| PIT | Q3 4:50 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 13–20 |
| BAL | Q3 1:52 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 13–20 |
| PIT | Q4 14:42 | 6 | 60 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| BAL | Q4 10:59 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| PIT | Q4 9:41 | 4 | 27 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| BAL | Q4 7:24 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 20–20 |
| PIT | Q4 6:14 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 25/36 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 97 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/34 | 188 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 12 | 81 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.49