Closing spread
SF -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
49ers
- OutDemarcus DobbsTENot Injury Related· DNP
- QuestionableDarcel McBathSConcussion· Limited
- ProbableAldon SmithLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableDavid AkersKPelvis· Limited
- ProbableAnthony DavisTFinger· Full
- ProbableDashon GoldsonSRibs· Full
- ProbableDelanie WalkerTEHip· Full
- ProbableDonte WhitnerSKnee· Full
- ProbableFrank GoreRBWrist· Full
- ProbableMario ManninghamWRShoulder· Full
- ProbablePatrick WillisLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableTarell BrownCBKnee· Full
- ProbableTavares GoodenLBElbow· Full
Rams
- OutMario HagganLBElbow· DNP
- DoubtfulDanny AmendolaWRFoot· DNP
- QuestionableBarry RichardsonTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRobert QuinnDEConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableScott WellsCKnee· Limited
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBFoot· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:31 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 1:22 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 12:24 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q2 8:55 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 4:21 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q2 2:16 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 1:43 | 6 | 47 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| SF | Q2 0:25 | 4 | -9 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q3 13:22 | 11 | 79 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| SF | Q3 6:45 | 4 | 13 | Safety | 7–2 |
| LA | Q3 4:27 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 7–2 |
| SF | Q3 1:56 | 15 | 84 | Field goal | 10–2 |
| LA | Q4 8:43 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 10–2 |
| SF | Q4 4:41 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 10–10 |
| SF | Q4 3:04 | 6 | 75 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LA | Q4 1:34 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LA | OT | 6 | 23 | Punt | 13–13 |
| SF | OT | 6 | 23 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LA | OT | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–13 |
| SF | OT | 6 | 17 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| LA | OT | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 21/32 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 9 | 84 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 23 | 58 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 7 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.