2012 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

20·30

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.081
  • 46.4%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.234EPA / dropback+0.158
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.026
  • 7.3%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +5.71CPOE-1.55
  • 44.9%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.90
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
CARQ1 15:001177Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 7:4959Punt0–7
CARQ1 5:121672Field goal0–10
ATLQ2 10:5539Punt0–10
CARQ2 8:43657Field goal0–13
ATLQ2 4:58517Punt0–13
CARQ2 3:351364Field goal0–16
ATLQ3 15:00531Punt0–16
CARQ3 13:09486Touchdown0–23
ATLQ3 11:011384Touchdown7–23
CARQ3 4:48422Punt7–23
ATLQ3 2:381185Touchdown13–23
CARQ4 13:57944Punt13–23
ATLQ4 9:17742Turnover13–23
CARQ4 6:19555Touchdown13–30
ATLQ4 4:111585Touchdown20–30
CARQ4 0:5300End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan34/4934221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers4215.30
Michael Turner7142.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White9111171
Julio Jones511661
Tony Gonzalez89610
Jacquizz Rodgers67430
Harry Douglas23280
Chase Coffman11120
Drew Davis1260
Michael Palmer1140
Antone Smith0100
Kevin Cone0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton23/3528720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton911612.91
DeAngelo Williams17563.30
Joe Adams133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith7121090
DeAngelo Williams23561
Greg Olsen45551
Louis Murphy59360
Armanti Edwards1270
Gary Barnidge1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.38