Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.081
- 46.4%Success rate44.9%
- +0.234EPA / dropback+0.158
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.3%Explosive rate11.0%
- +5.71CPOE-1.55
- 44.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.31Points / drive1.90
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 34/49 | 342 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 9 | 11 | 117 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 11 | 66 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Cone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 23/35 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9 | 116 | 12.9 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joe Adams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 12 | 109 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| Louis Murphy | 5 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.38