Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
47
Model margin
-1.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- DoubtfulWesley WoodyardLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon StokleyWRHip· Limited
- ProbableChris KuperGAnkle· Full
- ProbableManuel RamirezGBack· Full
- ProbableMatt WillisWRKnee· Full
- ProbableVirgil GreenTEHamstring· Full
Raiders
- OutRichard SeymourDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJack CrawfordDEToe· Limited
- QuestionablePhillip AdamsCBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableKhalif BarnesTTriceps· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableCarson PalmerQBright Thumb· Full
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableJuron CrinerWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableMarcel ReeceRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableMatt GiordanoSConcussion· Full
- ProbableMichael MitchellSConcussion· Full
- ProbableMike GoodsonRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTaiwan JonesRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTyvon BranchSNeck· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:30 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:51 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:09 | 4 | 59 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q1 2:53 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–0 |
| DEN | Q2 11:59 | 8 | 55 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| LV | Q2 8:32 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| DEN | Q2 1:59 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 38 | Punt | 13–7 |
| DEN | Q3 12:33 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| LV | Q3 7:30 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 16–7 |
| DEN | Q3 5:45 | 2 | 2 | Touchdown | 23–7 |
| LV | Q3 5:07 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 23–7 |
| DEN | Q3 3:37 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 26–7 |
| LV | Q3 0:19 | 11 | 42 | Punt | 26–7 |
| DEN | Q4 11:31 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 26–7 |
| LV | Q4 7:26 | 4 | 86 | Touchdown | 26–13 |
| DEN | Q4 5:36 | 9 | 51 | End of half | 26–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/36 | 310 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 32 | 119 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 8 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 5 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.