Closing spread
GB -6
Total
49.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.102
- 45.2%Success rate46.3%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.29CPOE+5.43
- 41.4%Third-down rate42.8%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
- 1.65Points / drive2.11
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/45 | 264 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 10 | 13 | 118 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 10 | 20 | 1 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14/24 | 173 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Green | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 1 |
| DuJuan Harris | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 7 | 102 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.90