2012 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

20·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

49.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.102
  • 45.2%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.29CPOE+5.43
  • 41.4%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.11
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
DETQ1 15:001475Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 7:16846Turnover7–0
DETQ1 3:351274Touchdown14–0
GBQ2 12:47541Field goal14–3
DETQ2 10:52718Opp touchdown14–10
DETQ2 6:15739Turnover14–10
GBQ2 2:4237Punt14–10
DETQ2 0:59313End of half14–10
GBQ3 15:00959Touchdown14–17
DETQ3 11:54630Field goal17–17
GBQ3 8:57732Punt17–17
DETQ3 5:2531Punt17–17
GBQ3 4:26417Missed field goal17–17
DETQ3 3:24735Missed field goal17–17
GBQ4 14:49759Touchdown17–24
DETQ4 10:45713Punt17–24
GBQ4 7:11640Field goal17–27
DETQ4 4:02931Turnover on downs17–27
GBQ4 2:263-12Punt17–27
DETQ4 1:59758Field goal20–27
GBQ4 0:0700End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4526411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell12494.10
Mikel Leshoure14493.50
Mike Thomas22512.50
Matthew Stafford393.01
Stefan Logan133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson10131180
Kris Durham49540
Joique Bell57470
Will Heller44210
Tony Scheffler310201
Stefan Logan1140

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers14/2417300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Green13695.30
Aaron Rodgers33210.71
DuJuan Harris7314.41
Ryan Grant11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb771020
Greg Jennings14270
James Jones25270
Jermichael Finley23160
Jarrett Boykin1140
Tom Crabtree0100
Alex Green12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.90