2012 · Week 14
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
TB -8
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.018
- 42.7%Success rate41.0%
- -0.006EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.038
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.51CPOE-4.01
- 37.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.18Points / drive1.74
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 32/51 | 381 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 12 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 7 | 12 | 133 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 9 | 13 | 104 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 6 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Marvin McNutt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 14/34 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 28 | 128 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 6 | 10 | 131 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 7 | 18 | 1 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.45