2012 · Week 14

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

23·21

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

TB -8

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.018
  • 42.7%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.006EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.038
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.51CPOE-4.01
  • 37.1%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.74
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TB
PHIQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:183-6Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:113-4Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:05626Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:4941Punt0–0
TBQ1 5:55517Punt0–0
PHIQ1 3:30628Punt0–0
TBQ1 0:1738Punt0–0
PHIQ2 13:3137Punt0–0
TBQ2 11:364-6Punt0–0
PHIQ2 10:02833Field goal3–0
TBQ2 7:13526Punt3–0
PHIQ2 4:37780Touchdown10–0
TBQ2 1:40514Punt10–0
PHIQ2 0:28339Missed field goal10–0
TBQ3 15:00640Punt10–0
TBQ3 12:1435Touchdown10–7
PHIQ3 11:35747Missed field goal10–7
TBQ3 7:29518Punt10–7
PHIQ3 5:37511Punt10–7
TBQ3 3:141174Touchdown10–14
PHIQ4 14:2632Punt10–14
TBQ4 13:181175Touchdown10–21
PHIQ4 7:21872Touchdown16–21
TBQ4 3:55523Punt16–21
PHIQ4 2:441354Touchdown23–21

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles32/5138120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Foles3279.01
Bryce Brown1260.50
Dion Lewis1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Avant7121330
Jeremy Maclin9131041
Clay Harbor66521
Riley Cooper49370
Dion Lewis11280
Damaris Johnson22200
Bryce Brown2460
Brent Celek1110
Marvin McNutt0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman14/3418920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin281284.61
Josh Freeman2136.50
LeGarrette Blount122.00
D.J. Ware1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson6101311
Dallas Clark15190
Mike Williams37181
Tiquan Underwood14170
Doug Martin3540
Luke Stocker0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.24
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.45