2012 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

23·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.093EPA / play+0.035
  • 38.0%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -2.87CPOE-4.46
  • 38.2%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.62
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
TENQ1 15:001090Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 10:1030Punt7–0
TENQ1 9:14735Missed field goal7–0
INDQ1 5:12753Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 1:01963Field goal10–7
INDQ2 12:2759Punt10–7
TENQ2 10:07310Punt10–7
INDQ2 8:21731Opp touchdown17–7
INDQ2 4:4046Punt17–7
TENQ2 1:51872Field goal20–7
INDQ2 0:37712Turnover20–7
INDQ3 15:001480Touchdown20–14
TENQ3 8:3636Punt20–14
INDQ3 7:3431Punt20–20
TENQ3 5:4010Opp touchdown20–21
TENQ3 5:361768Field goal23–21
INDQ4 10:281048Field goal23–24
TENQ4 6:2322Turnover23–24
INDQ4 5:3236Field goal23–27
TENQ4 3:48510Punt23–27
INDQ4 2:42425End of half23–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker22/3526212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Locker45112.80
Chris Johnson19442.30
Darius Reynaud122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt891430
Kendall Wright59390
Jared Cook33201
Craig Stevens11190
Nate Washington17150
Chris Johnson34150
Michael Preston11110

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck16/3419612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard19944.90
Andrew Luck571.40
Donnie Avery133.00
Delone Carter310.31
T.Y. Hilton1-2-2.00
Reggie Wayne1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne610641
T.Y. Hilton25500
Donnie Avery39310
Delone Carter11130
Dwayne Allen13110
Vick Ballard11100
Coby Fleener1490
LaVon Brazill1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.76