Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play+0.035
- 38.0%Success rate45.1%
- -0.054EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- -2.87CPOE-4.46
- 38.2%Third-down rate42.3%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.29Points / drive1.62
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 22/35 | 262 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 19 | 44 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 8 | 9 | 143 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Preston | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 16/34 | 196 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 19 | 94 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 10 | 64 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.76