Closing spread
GB -3
Total
43
Model margin
+1.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.041
- 46.3%Success rate39.6%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +5.43CPOE-0.76
- 42.8%Third-down rate36.4%
- 69.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.11Points / drive1.47
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/36 | 291 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Green | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 8 | 115 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 5 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| James Jones | 5 | 7 | 60 | 3 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 12/21 | 135 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Armando Allen | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27