2012 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

21·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

43

Model margin

+1.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.041
  • 46.3%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +5.43CPOE-0.76
  • 42.8%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 69.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.47
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00949Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:13919Punt0–0
CHIQ1 5:4037Punt0–0
GBQ1 3:45511Punt0–0
CHIQ1 1:0848Punt0–0
GBQ2 14:25849Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ2 11:22652Touchdown0–7
GBQ2 8:03789Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 4:193-2Punt7–7
GBQ2 2:1132Punt7–7
CHIQ2 1:3610Turnover7–7
GBQ2 1:25526Touchdown14–7
CHIQ2 0:2819End of half14–7
GBQ3 15:001468Touchdown21–7
CHIQ3 8:08515Punt21–7
GBQ3 5:14542Turnover21–7
CHIQ3 2:4264Field goal21–10
GBQ3 0:12966Missed field goal21–10
CHIQ4 10:1057Punt21–10
CHIQ4 7:5430Field goal21–13
GBQ4 7:04610Punt21–13
CHIQ4 3:47622Turnover on downs21–13
GBQ4 2:0739Punt21–13
CHIQ4 0:56319End of half21–13

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3629130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Green13352.70
Ryan Grant8324.00
DuJuan Harris5275.40
Aaron Rodgers4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb681150
Jermichael Finley56610
James Jones57603
Greg Jennings47500
Alex Green2560
Aaron Rodgers11-10

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler12/2113511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte20693.50
Jay Cutler199.00
Armando Allen252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte58640
Brandon Marshall67561
Armando Allen11150
Devin Hester0100
Alshon Jeffery0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.27