2012 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.094
- 41.0%Success rate47.2%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.160
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.039
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- -4.01CPOE+0.89
- 35.9%Third-down rate43.1%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.74Points / drive2.17
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 26/47 | 279 | 0 | 4 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 4/7 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 6 | 12 | 81 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 8 | 12 | 42 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/39 | 307 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 90 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 2 | 3 | 61 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 8 | 21 | 1 |
| David Thomas | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.70