Closing spread
MIA -5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.049
- 42.3%Success rate42.9%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.107
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.57CPOE-2.89
- 39.8%Third-down rate37.7%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.58Points / drive1.37
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/35 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 22 | 138 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorin Dickerson | 4 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/25 | 130 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 10 | 73 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 4 | 42 | 2 |
| Rishard Matthews | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Armon Binns | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.84