Closing spread
NE -13.5
Total
51
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play+0.256
- 44.1%Success rate53.7%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.422
- +0.015EPA / rush+0.001
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.15CPOE+7.39
- 47.2%Third-down rate48.4%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 2.25Points / drive3.13
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–3 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:50 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q1 5:01 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 3:30 | 7 | 29 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q2 14:57 | 11 | 86 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NE | Q2 7:46 | 13 | 79 | Missed field goal | 14–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–14 |
| NE | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| JAX | Q3 8:49 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| NE | Q3 4:04 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| JAX | Q3 0:49 | 12 | 71 | Field goal | 20–28 |
| NE | Q4 9:44 | 5 | 63 | Field goal | 20–31 |
| JAX | Q4 6:39 | 9 | 29 | Turnover | 20–31 |
| NE | Q4 3:46 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 20–31 |
| JAX | Q4 0:21 | 1 | 12 | End of half | 20–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 22/33 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/28 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 22 | 122 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.48