2012 · Week 16 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

13·42

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+3.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.109
  • 47.9%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback+0.213
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.005
  • 12.9%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +5.02CPOE+5.50
  • 35.1%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.17
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SFQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
SEAQ1 14:29235Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 13:48617Punt0–7
SEAQ1 9:40986Touchdown0–14
SFQ1 4:261153Opp touchdown0–21
SFQ2 14:0536Punt0–21
SEAQ2 12:52310Turnover0–21
SFQ2 11:5131Field goal3–21
SEAQ2 10:191455Touchdown3–28
SFQ2 1:58631Field goal6–28
SEAQ2 0:3100End of half6–28
SEAQ3 15:00519Punt6–28
SFQ3 11:52448Turnover6–28
SEAQ3 10:051568Touchdown6–35
SFQ3 3:22867Turnover6–35
SEAQ4 14:521377Touchdown6–42
SFQ4 7:021390Touchdown13–42
SEAQ4 1:4000End of half13–42

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick19/3624411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick7314.40
Frank Gore6284.70
LaMichael James4153.80
Anthony Dixon284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree49650
Delanie Walker47541
Randy Moss36440
Garrett Celek23410
Vernon Davis11270
LaMichael James22140
Frank Gore0100
Mario Manningham1400

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2117141
Sidney Rice0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch261114.31
Robert Turbin33812.70
Russell Wilson6294.80
Matt Flynn3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin46532
Golden Tate23270
Robert Turbin23200
Marshawn Lynch22191
Jermaine Kearse12170
Zach Miller22150
Sidney Rice12140
Anthony McCoy1161

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.59