Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.109
- 47.9%Success rate45.2%
- +0.170EPA / dropback+0.213
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.005
- 12.9%Explosive rate11.2%
- +5.02CPOE+5.50
- 35.1%Third-down rate39.8%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.92Points / drive2.17
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 19/36 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/21 | 171 | 4 | 1 |
| Sidney Rice | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 6 | 53 | 2 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.59