2012 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 30/54 | 372 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 7 | 17 | 132 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 7 | 15 | 108 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.