2012 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- QuestionableCortland FinneganCBThigh· DNP
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBIllness· Limited
- ProbableBradley FletcherCBIllness· Full
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBBack· Full
- ProbableRobert QuinnDEIllness· Full
- ProbableScott WellsCKnee· Full
Buccaneers
- DoubtfulAaron MorganDEShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableLeQuan LewisCBKnee· Full
- ProbableDa'Quan BowersDEHamstring· Full
- ProbableLavonte DavidLBKnee· Full
- ProbableLuke StockerTEHead· Full
- ProbableMichael BennettDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableMike WilliamsWRWrist· Full
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 69 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 5:22 | 4 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 4:02 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:42 | 5 | 34 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 15:00 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 14:10 | 5 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 11:46 | 10 | 29 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 5:56 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–6 |
| TB | Q2 4:54 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 3:30 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| TB | Q2 0:32 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 14–6 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| TB | Q3 14:46 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 21–6 |
| LA | Q3 13:58 | 6 | 30 | Touchdown | 28–6 |
| TB | Q3 10:47 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| LA | Q3 8:50 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 28–13 |
| TB | Q3 6:48 | 10 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 28–13 |
| LA | Q3 1:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 28–13 |
| TB | Q3 0:34 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 28–13 |
| LA | Q3 0:07 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 28–13 |
| TB | Q4 14:42 | 9 | 66 | Turnover on downs | 28–13 |
| LA | Q4 12:08 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 28–13 |
| TB | Q4 9:14 | 3 | 28 | Turnover | 28–13 |
| LA | Q4 7:55 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 28–13 |
| TB | Q4 5:32 | 12 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 28–13 |
| LA | Q4 2:26 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–13 |
| TB | Q4 1:52 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 28–13 |
| LA | Q4 1:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 30/54 | 372 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 7 | 17 | 132 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 7 | 15 | 108 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.