Closing spread
SF -16
Total
39
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.259EPA / play+0.105
- 35.1%Success rate47.9%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.242EPA / rush+0.029
- 6.0%Explosive rate12.9%
- -8.47CPOE+5.02
- 25.9%Third-down rate35.1%
- 36.3%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 0.79Points / drive1.92
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 19/34 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Powell | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 8 | 14 | 166 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| William Powell | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/28 | 276 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 1 |
| LaMichael James | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 8 | 13 | 172 | 2 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.08