Closing spread
SF -16
Total
39
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutEarly DoucetWRConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulLaron ByrdWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony ShermanRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMike GibsonGCalf· Limited
- QuestionableNate PotterTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRonald TalleyDEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableKerry RhodesSIllness· Limited
- ProbableAdrian WilsonSIllness· Full
- ProbableDan WilliamsDTHamstring· Full
- ProbableGregory TolerCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableJames SandersSCalf· Full
- ProbableRashad JohnsonSHamstring· Full
49ers
- DoubtfulJustin SmithDTElbow· DNP
- QuestionableClark HaggansLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableVernon DavisTEConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableWill TukuafuDTNeck· Limited
- ProbableAhmad BrooksLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableAldon SmithLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableBruce MillerRBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableTarell BrownCBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableTavares GoodenLBIllness· Limited
- ProbableAndy LeePIllness· Full
- ProbableCarlos RogersCBKnee· Full
- ProbableDonte WhitnerSKnee· Full
- ProbableFrank GoreRBKnee· Full
- ProbableJonathan GoodwinCIllness· Full
- ProbableMike IupatiGShoulder· Full
- ProbableNavorro BowmanLBWrist· Full
- ProbableTrenton RobinsonSFinger· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.259EPA / play+0.105
- 35.1%Success rate47.9%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.242EPA / rush+0.029
- 6.0%Explosive rate12.9%
- -8.47CPOE+5.02
- 25.9%Third-down rate35.1%
- 36.3%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 0.79Points / drive1.92
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:59 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:55 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:57 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:00 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 5:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 3:55 | 9 | 74 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| SF | Q2 13:44 | 7 | 55 | Missed field goal | 6–0 |
| ARI | Q2 9:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–0 |
| SF | Q2 8:08 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| ARI | Q2 7:20 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 5:12 | 10 | 61 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| ARI | Q2 0:24 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 6–7 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| ARI | Q3 11:07 | 3 | -18 | Punt | 6–10 |
| SF | Q3 8:49 | 5 | 38 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| ARI | Q3 5:58 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 6–17 |
| SF | Q3 4:22 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| ARI | Q4 12:59 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 6–24 |
| SF | Q4 12:49 | 8 | 17 | Field goal | 6–27 |
| ARI | Q4 9:07 | 7 | 22 | Turnover | 6–27 |
| SF | Q4 5:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–27 |
| ARI | Q4 3:38 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| SF | Q4 1:59 | 1 | 10 | End of half | 13–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 19/34 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Powell | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 8 | 14 | 166 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| William Powell | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/28 | 276 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 1 |
| LaMichael James | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 8 | 13 | 172 | 2 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.08