Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+6.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.002
- 41.5%Success rate41.6%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.034
- 10.0%Explosive rate6.6%
- -0.27CPOE+1.17
- 37.1%Third-down rate34.3%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.80Points / drive1.71
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 15/25 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4/8 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 22 | 89 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Anthony Allen | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Dickson | 6 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| David Reed | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Anthony Allen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Billy Bajema | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 10/15 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 5/11 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Leonard | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tate | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Whalen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.20
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.34