2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyrod Taylor

17·23

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 26°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

Total

43

Model margin

+6.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.002
  • 41.5%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.019
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.034
  • 10.0%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -0.27CPOE+1.17
  • 37.1%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.71
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
BALQ1 15:001343Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:02613Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:423-7Punt0–0
CINQ1 5:1934Punt0–0
BALQ1 3:52780Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 0:17634Punt7–0
BALQ2 12:24524Punt7–0
CINQ2 9:4735Punt7–0
BALQ2 8:11634Punt7–0
CINQ2 5:0137Punt7–0
BALQ2 3:013-2Punt7–0
CINQ2 2:07542Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 0:39531End of half7–7
CINQ3 15:00621Punt7–7
BALQ3 10:23614Punt7–7
CINQ3 7:5048Field goal7–10
BALQ3 6:153-12Punt7–10
CINQ3 4:36610Field goal7–13
BALQ3 2:241256Touchdown14–13
CINQ4 12:5032Punt14–13
BALQ4 11:36632Missed field goal14–13
CINQ4 8:54445Field goal14–16
BALQ4 7:1633Opp touchdown14–23
BALQ4 6:061456Field goal17–23
CINQ4 1:2100End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor15/2514901
Joe Flacco4/83400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce22894.00
Tyrod Taylor9657.21
Anthony Allen10414.11
Ray Rice351.70
Torrey Smith1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ed Dickson68640
David Reed34440
Jacoby Jones35360
Deonte Thompson44260
Anthony Allen1170
Bernard Pierce1440
Billy Bajema0100
Dennis Pitta0200
Torrey Smith0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton10/157810
Bruce Gradkowski5/116500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Leonard10343.40
Cedric Peerman5142.80
Andy Dalton242.00
Bruce Gradkowski3-2-0.70
Dan Herron1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Tate35530
Marvin Jones58451
A.J. Green22260
Andrew Hawkins33180
Brian Leonard2210
Jermaine Gresham0100
Ryan Whalen0100
Orson Charles0100
Dan Herron0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.20
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.34