2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Thaddeus Lewis

10·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 28°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -10

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.068EPA / play-0.007
  • 39.6%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.168
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -4.22CPOE+0.59
  • 30.6%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.66
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:47420Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:5239Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:141269Turnover0–0
PITQ1 3:4847Punt0–0
CLEQ1 0:59530Missed field goal0–0
PITQ2 12:45848Field goal0–3
CLEQ2 7:53947Field goal3–3
PITQ2 3:48414Punt3–3
CLEQ2 1:5820Turnover3–3
PITQ2 1:42412Touchdown3–10
CLEQ2 0:4729End of half3–10
CLEQ3 15:00750Touchdown10–10
PITQ3 11:031368Touchdown10–17
CLEQ3 4:391153Punt10–17
PITQ4 14:094-6Punt10–17
CLEQ4 11:5135Punt10–17
PITQ4 9:47524Punt10–17
CLEQ4 6:47213Turnover10–17
PITQ4 6:27627Touchdown10–24
CLEQ4 3:20724Turnover10–24
PITQ4 1:1512End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Thad Lewis22/3220411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson8546.80
Montario Hardesty14372.60
Chris Ogbonnaya294.50
Thad Lewis133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson78640
Travis Benjamin46430
Josh Gordon47390
Greg Little35381
Josh Cribbs1190
Josh Cooper1280
Chris Ogbonnaya2230
Montario Hardesty0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger15/2313430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer11524.70
Isaac Redman6264.30
Rashard Mendenhall6193.20
Chris Rainey122.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-2-1.00
Antonio Brown2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders23280
Plaxico Burress23241
Antonio Brown23221
Jerricho Cotchery23210
Will Johnson23170
Isaac Redman11110
Jonathan Dwyer1290
Leonard Pope1211
Rashard Mendenhall2210
David Paulson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.38