Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.007
- 39.6%Success rate42.0%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.168
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- -4.22CPOE+0.59
- 30.6%Third-down rate41.9%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 1.48Points / drive1.66
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thad Lewis | 22/32 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Thad Lewis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 7 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 15/23 | 134 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.38