2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

34·37

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.011
  • 46.3%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.013
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +5.43CPOE-2.66
  • 42.8%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 69.8%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.91
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:00941Field goal0–3
GBQ1 10:4736Punt0–3
MINQ1 9:14760Touchdown0–10
GBQ1 5:4435Punt0–10
MINQ1 4:331034Field goal0–13
GBQ2 14:51521Punt0–13
MINQ2 10:4737Punt0–13
GBQ2 9:071340Touchdown7–13
MINQ2 4:01760Touchdown7–20
GBQ2 1:07547Field goal10–20
GBQ3 15:00685Touchdown17–20
MINQ3 11:56426Punt17–20
GBQ3 10:42519Turnover17–20
MINQ3 8:171067Touchdown17–27
GBQ3 4:00487Touchdown24–27
MINQ3 2:0434Punt24–27
GBQ4 15:00728Field goal27–27
MINQ4 12:21984Touchdown27–34
GBQ4 7:541267Touchdown34–34
MINQ4 2:54761Field goal34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/4036540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DuJuan Harris14705.00
Ryan Grant221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings8121202
Jordy Nelson35871
Jermichael Finley89720
James Jones67621
DuJuan Harris22170
Jarrett Boykin1170
D.J. Williams0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder16/2823430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson341995.91
Christian Ponder2168.00
Toby Gerhart122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarius Wright35901
Jerome Simpson36390
Michael Jenkins35371
Toby Gerhart22220
Kyle Rudolph26200
Rhett Ellison1170
Adrian Peterson1221

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.10