Closing spread
GB -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.011
- 46.3%Success rate42.1%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.013
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- +5.43CPOE-2.66
- 42.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 69.8%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.11Points / drive1.91
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/40 | 365 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 8 | 12 | 120 | 2 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 87 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 8 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| James Jones | 6 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 16/28 | 234 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 34 | 199 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 5 | 90 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.10