Closing spread
DEN -17
Total
41
Model margin
+12.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play+0.113
- 40.7%Success rate48.0%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.271
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- -3.02CPOE+7.00
- 33.1%Third-down rate46.0%
- 38.7%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 0.91Points / drive2.26
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 7/16 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Moeaki | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Devon Wylie | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamar Newsome | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/29 | 304 | 3 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2/4 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Ball | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jacob Hester | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 8 | 122 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 7 | 8 | 76 | 2 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jacob Hester | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
78.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+12.01