Closing spread
NE -11.5
Total
48
Model margin
+6.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.049EPA / play+0.176
- 42.9%Success rate50.2%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.107EPA / rush+0.031
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- -2.89CPOE+1.48
- 37.7%Third-down rate48.4%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.37Points / drive2.71
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/35 | 235 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Armon Binns | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/36 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 12 | 94 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.73