2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

0·28

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 28°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NE -11.5

Total

48

Model margin

+6.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.049EPA / play+0.176
  • 42.9%Success rate50.2%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.282
  • -0.107EPA / rush+0.031
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -2.89CPOE+1.48
  • 37.7%Third-down rate48.4%
  • 58.9%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.37Points / drive2.71
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
NEQ1 15:00856Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ1 11:433-3Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:18619Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:27417Turnover0–0
NEQ1 7:15228Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 6:40731Punt0–7
NEQ1 2:5413102Touchdown0–14
MIAQ2 10:26941Missed field goal0–14
NEQ2 6:241474Touchdown0–21
MIAQ2 1:00420End of half0–21
MIAQ3 15:00819Punt0–21
NEQ3 11:1874Punt0–21
MIAQ3 7:30866Turnover0–21
NEQ3 4:13849Punt0–21
MIAQ3 1:113-1Punt0–21
NEQ3 0:24416Punt0–21
MIAQ4 13:33637Turnover on downs0–21
NEQ4 11:47647Touchdown0–28
MIAQ4 9:20611Punt0–28
NEQ4 6:27948Punt0–28
MIAQ4 0:32118End of half0–28

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/3523501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush8263.30
Lamar Miller5132.60
Ryan Tannehill284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline57690
Armon Binns37400
Rishard Matthews36360
Anthony Fasano36310
Reggie Bush25230
Lamar Miller22220

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/3628420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley20743.72
Shane Vereen8384.80
Brandon Bolden6264.30
Danny Woodhead3186.00
Wes Welker11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker812941
Danny Woodhead55790
Aaron Hernandez58440
Rob Gronkowski24421
Deion Branch11160
Brandon Lloyd1590
Michael Hoomanawanui0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.5%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.73