Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.007
- 41.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.139EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.021
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.0%
- -5.39CPOE-1.57
- 36.9%Third-down rate39.8%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.20Points / drive1.58
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/35 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 5 | 88 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Jordan White | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 12/26 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 24 | 59 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 9 | 111 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.93