2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

9·28

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 28°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.101EPA / play-0.007
  • 41.7%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.021
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -5.39CPOE-1.57
  • 36.9%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 47.4%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.58
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
NYJQ1 15:001242Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 9:00730Punt3–0
NYJQ1 4:5835Opp touchdown3–7
NYJQ1 3:341457Field goal6–7
BUFQ2 10:5437Punt6–7
NYJQ2 9:101078Field goal9–7
BUFQ2 3:49366Touchdown9–14
NYJQ2 3:21623Punt9–14
BUFQ2 0:56429Punt9–14
NYJQ2 0:2500End of half9–14
BUFQ3 15:001-2Turnover9–14
NYJQ3 14:4534Missed field goal9–14
BUFQ3 13:18516Punt9–14
NYJQ3 11:06442Punt9–14
BUFQ3 9:361157Missed field goal9–14
NYJQ3 3:141-6Turnover9–14
BUFQ3 3:0536Missed field goal9–14
NYJQ3 0:5233Punt9–14
BUFQ4 14:46765Touchdown9–21
NYJQ4 10:52831Punt9–21
BUFQ4 8:49413Punt9–21
NYJQ4 7:14621Turnover on downs9–21
BUFQ4 5:341047Touchdown9–28
NYJQ4 1:10433End of half9–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez17/3520501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene19743.90
Bilal Powell12564.70
Joe McKnight122.00
Jeremy Kerley100.00
Mark Sanchez2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley35880
Braylon Edwards48420
Jeff Cumberland36360
Jordan White13130
Bilal Powell26120
Konrad Reuland1240
Shonn Greene2230
Clyde Gates0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick12/2622510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller24592.50
Tashard Choice5306.01
Brad Smith22010.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson691110
C.J. Spiller27721
Brad Smith26260
Ruvell Martin11110
Trevor Graham1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.93