2011 · WC

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

10·31

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4

Total

38

Model margin

+0.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTexans
  • -0.030EPA / play+0.024
  • 41.7%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.9%
  • -2.19CPOE-0.14
  • 35.5%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.55Points / drive2.04
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. HOU are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00310Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:1438Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:37418Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:57622Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 7:34665Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 4:571253Missed field goal7–7
HOUQ2 12:4534Punt7–7
CINQ2 11:24746Field goal10–7
HOUQ2 7:091259Field goal10–10
CINQ2 1:48314Opp touchdown10–17
CINQ2 0:52313End of half10–17
CINQ3 15:00311Punt10–17
HOUQ3 12:27510Punt10–17
CINQ3 10:08727Punt10–17
HOUQ3 5:45983Touchdown10–24
CINQ3 1:08733Turnover10–24
HOUQ4 13:18830Punt10–24
CINQ4 7:2527Turnover10–24
HOUQ4 7:01345Touchdown10–31
CINQ4 5:151366Turnover on downs10–31
HOUQ4 2:23318End of half10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton27/4225703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Leonard33411.30
Andy Dalton3175.70
Cedric Benson7142.01
Bernard Scott6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green512470
Jermaine Gresham56460
Donald Lee11360
Brian Leonard67360
Jerome Simpson36330
Bernard Scott34290
Ryan Whalen22240
Andrew Hawkins1280
Cedric Benson12-20

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates11/2015910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster241536.42
Ben Tate9374.10
James Casey100.00
T.J. Yates1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson59901
Owen Daniels26290
Arian Foster33290
Kevin Walter12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.59