Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
38
Model margin
+0.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play+0.024
- 41.7%Success rate44.6%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.9%
- -2.19CPOE-0.14
- 35.5%Third-down rate41.5%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.55Points / drive2.04
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 27/42 | 257 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 6 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Ryan Whalen | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 11/20 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 24 | 153 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Ben Tate | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 5 | 9 | 90 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.59