Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- OutTyrone McKenzieLBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableAntoine WinfieldCBHand· Limited
- QuestionableChristian PonderQBright Elbow· Limited
- ProbableA.J. OrangeCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableAdrian PetersonRBAbdomen· Full
- ProbableBrian RobisonDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableChris KluwePleft Knee· Full
- ProbableGeorge JohnsonDEQuadricep· Full
- ProbableHarrison SmithSKnee· Full
- ProbableJared AllenDEShoulder· Full
- ProbablePhil LoadholtTKnee· Full
Packers
- OutJarrett BoykinWRAnkle· DNP
- OutJerel WorthyDEKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableJames StarksRBKnee· Limited
- ProbableTramon WilliamsCBIllness· Limited
- ProbableAlex GreenRBKnee· Full
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSCollarbone· Full
- ProbableDavon HouseCBHip· Full
- ProbableJermichael FinleyTEQuadricep· Full
- ProbableJordy NelsonWRKnee· Full
- ProbableRandall CobbWRAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.102
- 42.1%Success rate46.3%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.66CPOE+5.43
- 37.4%Third-down rate42.8%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
- 1.91Points / drive2.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:09 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:11 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 0:28 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 12:48 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 9:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 8:26 | 10 | 72 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 3:25 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| GB | Q2 1:48 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| MIN | Q2 0:38 | 6 | 11 | End of half | 3–17 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| MIN | Q3 9:25 | 11 | 35 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| GB | Q3 3:59 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–24 |
| MIN | Q3 2:24 | 6 | 35 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| GB | Q3 0:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–24 |
| GB | Q4 13:59 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–24 |
| MIN | Q4 12:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–24 |
| GB | Q4 10:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–24 |
| MIN | Q4 9:05 | 6 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 3–24 |
| GB | Q4 6:24 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 3–24 |
| MIN | Q4 4:15 | 3 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| GB | Q4 3:39 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 10–24 |
| MIN | Q4 0:19 | 2 | 53 | End of half | 10–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Webb | 11/30 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 22 | 99 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 7 | 68 | 9.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 96 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/33 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.09