2012 · DIV

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

28·30

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapFalcons
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.091
  • 45.2%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.234
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.192
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +5.50CPOE+5.71
  • 39.8%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.17Points / drive2.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001054Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 9:4034Punt0–3
ATLQ1 8:1237Turnover0–3
SEAQ1 6:54328Turnover0–3
ATLQ1 5:51851Touchdown0–10
SEAQ1 3:10638Punt0–10
ATLQ1 0:311073Field goal0–13
SEAQ2 9:13658Turnover on downs0–13
ATLQ2 5:33483Touchdown0–20
SEAQ2 4:161365End of half0–20
SEAQ3 15:00980Touchdown7–20
ATLQ3 9:471480Touchdown7–27
SEAQ3 2:11880Touchdown14–27
ATLQ4 13:01411Turnover14–27
SEAQ4 11:03462Touchdown21–27
ATLQ4 9:1333Punt21–27
SEAQ4 7:23510Punt21–27
ATLQ4 5:32414Punt21–27
SEAQ4 3:00760Touchdown28–27
ATLQ4 0:31241Field goal28–30
SEAQ4 0:0826Turnover28–30

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/3638521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson7608.61
Marshawn Lynch16462.91
Robert Turbin4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller891421
Golden Tate681031
Sidney Rice49600
Marshawn Lynch33370
Robert Turbin23370
Doug Baldwin1360
Anthony McCoy0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3525032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner14987.00
Jacquizz Rodgers10646.40
Matt Ryan166.00
Julio Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White510761
Julio Jones610590
Tony Gonzalez67511
Harry Douglas23290
Chase Coffman11160
Jacquizz Rodgers2280
Drew Davis1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.34