Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.091
- 45.2%Success rate46.4%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.234
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.192
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.3%
- +5.50CPOE+5.71
- 39.8%Third-down rate44.9%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.17Points / drive2.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/36 | 385 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 60 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 8 | 9 | 142 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/35 | 250 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 14 | 98 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 5 | 10 | 76 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.34