2013 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

17·23

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.115
  • 44.7%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback+0.209
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.077
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +2.86CPOE+5.36
  • 42.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.21
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:24419Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:38682Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 8:32623Turnover on downs7–0
ATLQ1 5:25733Field goal10–0
NOQ1 1:281150Field goal10–3
ATLQ2 10:53122Turnover10–3
NOQ2 10:36331Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 9:10736Punt10–10
NOQ2 5:49787Field goal10–13
ATLQ2 1:47523Punt10–13
NOQ2 0:3027End of half10–13
NOQ3 15:003-9Punt10–13
ATLQ3 13:39559Touchdown17–13
NOQ3 11:411190Touchdown17–20
ATLQ3 6:223-6Punt17–20
NOQ3 4:4710Turnover17–20
ATLQ3 4:3931Punt17–20
NOQ3 2:561055Punt17–20
ATLQ4 12:54632Punt17–20
NOQ4 9:24968Field goal17–23
ATLQ4 3:121077Turnover17–23
NOQ4 0:4300End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/3830421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson11777.00
Matt Ryan11212.00
Jacquizz Rodgers2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas46930
Julio Jones79761
Steven Jackson58450
Tony Gonzalez36361
Roddy White22190
Jacquizz Rodgers1130

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/3535721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas9434.80
Darren Sproles8222.80
Mark Ingram9111.20
Drew Brees320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Sproles66880
Kenny Stills25860
Marques Colston56681
Jimmy Graham47451
Benjamin Watson33310
Lance Moore24230
Pierre Thomas44160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.22