Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.115
- 44.7%Success rate47.2%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.209
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.077
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.86CPOE+5.36
- 42.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
- 1.70Points / drive2.21
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/38 | 304 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 11 | 77 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 7 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Steven Jackson | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/35 | 357 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 6 | 88 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 5 | 86 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.22