Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.096
- 39.2%Success rate36.3%
- -0.074EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.263
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- -3.79CPOE-1.63
- 34.9%Third-down rate36.0%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.27Points / drive1.33
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 21/33 | 227 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1/4 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Cameron | 5 | 7 | 95 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 4 | 12 | 33 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Tori Gurley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/33 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 7 | 13 | 85 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Billy Bajema | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.72
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.03