2013 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

6·14

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 75°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.096
  • 39.2%Success rate36.3%
  • -0.074EPA / dropback-0.003
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.263
  • 7.2%Explosive rate6.4%
  • -3.79CPOE-1.63
  • 34.9%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.27Points / drive1.33
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
BALQ1 15:001133Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 11:07457Field goal3–0
BALQ1 8:40517Punt3–0
CLEQ1 6:19519Punt3–0
BALQ1 3:07423Punt3–0
CLEQ1 1:39625Punt3–0
BALQ2 13:2034Punt3–0
CLEQ2 11:411043Punt3–0
BALQ2 5:2037Punt3–0
CLEQ2 3:193-3Punt3–0
BALQ2 1:10539Missed field goal3–0
CLEQ2 0:31433Field goal6–0
BALQ2 0:0200End of half6–0
CLEQ3 15:00829Punt6–0
BALQ3 11:031280Touchdown6–7
CLEQ3 5:13617Punt6–7
BALQ3 2:16315Turnover6–7
CLEQ3 1:0149Turnover on downs6–7
BALQ4 14:444-1Punt6–7
CLEQ4 13:183-10Punt6–7
BALQ4 12:17842Touchdown6–14
CLEQ4 8:57534Punt6–14
BALQ4 7:14830Punt6–14
CLEQ4 3:3456Turnover on downs6–14
BALQ4 3:01310End of half6–14

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden21/3322700
Jason Campbell1/4600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson18583.20
Brandon Weeden273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Cameron57950
Davone Bess58380
Greg Little412330
Chris Ogbonnaya23240
Travis Benjamin11220
Trent Richardson55210
Tori Gurley0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3321110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce19573.01
Ray Rice13362.80
Joe Flacco461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith713850
Marlon Brown46451
Brandon Stokley45360
Billy Bajema11180
Ray Rice3390
Dallas Clark1180
Ed Dickson0100
Bernard Pierce11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.72
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.03