2013 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

16·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 93°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.115EPA / play-0.089
  • 47.2%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.209EPA / dropback-0.049
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.147
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +5.36CPOE-1.72
  • 45.1%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 64.9%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.34
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
NOQ1 15:001054Field goal3–0
TBQ1 10:30416Punt3–0
NOQ1 8:1110Turnover3–0
TBQ1 8:03835Touchdown3–7
NOQ1 5:15680Touchdown10–7
TBQ1 2:36624Punt10–7
NOQ2 14:53925Missed field goal10–7
TBQ2 10:3800Punt10–7
TBQ2 10:3839Punt10–7
NOQ2 9:2216Punt10–7
NOQ2 8:46734Punt10–7
TBQ2 4:3947Punt10–7
NOQ2 2:32840Turnover on downs10–7
TBQ2 0:1411End of half10–7
TBQ3 15:00830Turnover10–7
NOQ3 11:49827Field goal13–7
TBQ3 8:04534Turnover13–7
NOQ3 5:2235Punt13–7
TBQ3 3:48543Punt13–7
NOQ3 1:16830Opp touchdown13–14
TBQ4 12:4000Opp touchdown13–14
NOQ4 12:4038Punt13–14
TBQ4 11:24417Punt13–14
NOQ4 9:4258Punt13–14
TBQ4 6:561157Missed field goal13–14
NOQ4 1:06354Field goal16–14

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/4632212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas5295.80
Darren Sproles7263.70
Mark Ingram8202.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham10161791
Marques Colston47630
Darren Sproles68360
Pierre Thomas45190
Lance Moore14150
Kenny Stills11100
Robert Meachem0100
Mark Ingram0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman9/2212511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin291445.00
Josh Freeman3165.30
Brian Leonard100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson511770
Nate Byham11340
Mike Williams2690
Kevin Ogletree1351
Doug Martin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.17
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.31