2013 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 93°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
NO -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.115EPA / play-0.089
- 47.2%Success rate37.6%
- +0.209EPA / dropback-0.049
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.147
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +5.36CPOE-1.72
- 45.1%Third-down rate31.1%
- 64.9%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 2.21Points / drive1.34
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/46 | 322 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 10 | 16 | 179 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 9/22 | 125 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 29 | 144 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.31