2013 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

10·13

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 72°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -10.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.105EPA / play+0.062
  • 37.6%Success rate46.7%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -4.00CPOE-1.37
  • 38.8%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.05
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:00765Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 12:5435Punt0–7
NEQ1 11:5638Punt0–7
NYJQ1 10:34133Turnover0–7
NEQ1 10:1735Field goal0–10
NYJQ1 9:171056Field goal3–10
NEQ1 4:01520Punt3–10
NYJQ1 1:4939Punt3–10
NEQ2 14:50410Punt3–10
NYJQ2 13:26943Punt3–10
NEQ2 8:073-4Punt3–10
NYJQ2 7:183-6Punt3–10
NEQ2 6:32443Field goal3–13
NYJQ2 5:053-6Punt3–13
NEQ2 3:1239Punt3–13
NYJQ2 1:563-2Punt3–13
NEQ2 0:53515Missed field goal3–13
NYJQ3 15:00640Punt3–13
NEQ3 11:4133Punt3–13
NYJQ3 10:05958Touchdown10–13
NEQ3 5:05613Punt10–13
NYJQ3 2:313-1Punt10–13
NEQ3 0:5836Punt10–13
NYJQ4 14:46858Turnover10–13
NEQ4 11:13622Punt10–13
NYJQ4 8:2935Punt10–13
NEQ4 7:2735Punt10–13
NYJQ4 6:07526Turnover10–13
NEQ4 4:23614Punt10–13
NYJQ4 0:5620Turnover10–13
NEQ4 0:3800End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith15/3521403

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory12524.30
Bilal Powell13483.71
Geno Smith3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stephen Hill48860
Santonio Holmes36510
Clyde Gates28420
Bilal Powell25220
Kellen Winslow36160
Ryan Spadola0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/3918510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley16402.50
LeGarrette Blount4112.80
Julian Edelman144.00
Leon Washington111.00
Tom Brady2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman1318780
Aaron Dobson310561
Kenbrell Thompkins27470
Leon Washington0100
LeGarrette Blount0100
Michael Hoomanawanui0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.73