Closing spread
NE -10.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.105EPA / play+0.062
- 37.6%Success rate46.7%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -4.00CPOE-1.37
- 38.8%Third-down rate37.9%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.25Points / drive2.05
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 15/35 | 214 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Hill | 4 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 2 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Ryan Spadola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/39 | 185 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 16 | 40 | 2.5 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 13 | 18 | 78 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 3 | 10 | 56 | 1 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 2 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.73