Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.105
- 39.7%Success rate37.6%
- -0.107EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.82CPOE-4.00
- 33.7%Third-down rate38.8%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.33Points / drive1.25
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 19/42 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 10 | 9 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 13 | 86 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/29 | 331 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 27 | 149 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 5 | 10 | 154 | 1 |
| Stephen Hill | 3 | 6 | 108 | 1 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.24