2013 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

20·27

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 24mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.105
  • 39.7%Success rate37.6%
  • -0.107EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.82CPOE-4.00
  • 33.7%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.25
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001295Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 9:06513Punt0–7
NYJQ1 7:2133Punt0–7
BUFQ1 5:513-5Punt0–7
NYJQ1 4:50732Punt0–7
BUFQ1 1:02670Field goal3–7
NYJQ2 13:4510Turnover3–7
BUFQ2 13:26616Field goal6–7
NYJQ2 9:57680Touchdown6–14
BUFQ2 6:58839Turnover on downs6–14
NYJQ2 3:42516Punt6–14
BUFQ2 1:4136Punt6–14
NYJQ2 0:43517Field goal6–17
BUFQ3 15:00612Punt6–17
NYJQ3 13:35989Field goal6–20
BUFQ3 9:48731Field goal9–20
NYJQ3 8:18428Turnover9–20
BUFQ3 6:5035Field goal12–20
NYJQ3 5:35826Turnover on downs12–20
BUFQ3 2:02416Punt12–20
NYJQ3 0:35422Punt12–20
BUFQ4 13:221065Touchdown20–20
NYJQ4 10:39470Touchdown20–27
BUFQ4 9:23521Punt20–27
NYJQ4 7:4735Punt20–27
BUFQ4 6:19105Punt20–27
NYJQ4 4:36418Punt20–27
BUFQ4 2:44625Turnover on downs20–27
NYJQ4 1:43312Punt20–27
BUFQ4 0:2129End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel19/4224310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson77210.30
EJ Manuel6406.70
C.J. Spiller1090.90
Tashard Choice2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson613860
Scott Chandler56791
Fred Jackson45370
Robert Woods210350
Trevor Graham1550
C.J. Spiller1110
Tashard Choice0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith16/2933122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell271495.50
Alex Green5142.80
Geno Smith4143.51
Chris Ivory451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes5101541
Stephen Hill361081
Jeff Cumberland33260
Jeremy Kerley25250
Bilal Powell2390
Clyde Gates0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.24