Closing spread
DEN -16
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 32/37 | 374 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Montee Ball | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 8 | 8 | 133 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 10 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.