Closing spread
DEN -16
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDavid AusberryTEShoulder· DNP
- OutMenelik WatsonTKnee· DNP
- OutTyvon BranchSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableLucas NixGAnkle· Limited
Broncos
- QuestionableChamp BaileyCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableJoel DreessenTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableShaun PhillipsLBBack· DNP
- ProbableAaron BrewerLSRib· Full
- ProbableC.J. AndersonRBKnee· Full
- ProbableChris KuperGAnkle· Full
- ProbableDuke IhenachoSAnkle· Full
- ProbableEric DeckerWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableJacob TammeTENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableOmar BoldenSShoulder· Full
- ProbableWes WelkerWRAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:51 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:28 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:19 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 4:29 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 0:47 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 12:02 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LV | Q2 7:27 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q2 5:57 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LV | Q2 3:40 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 7–24 |
| DEN | Q2 1:49 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| LV | Q2 0:19 | 3 | 19 | End of half | 7–27 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 57 | Field goal | 7–30 |
| LV | Q3 8:41 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–30 |
| DEN | Q3 6:30 | 9 | 48 | Turnover | 7–30 |
| LV | Q3 2:43 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–30 |
| DEN | Q3 0:17 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–37 |
| LV | Q4 11:27 | 12 | 78 | Turnover on downs | 14–37 |
| DEN | Q4 5:29 | 6 | 34 | Turnover | 14–37 |
| LV | Q4 2:19 | 4 | 20 | Touchdown | 21–37 |
| DEN | Q4 1:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 32/37 | 374 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Montee Ball | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 8 | 8 | 133 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 10 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.