Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.075
- 43.4%Success rate39.2%
- +0.109EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.24CPOE-3.79
- 41.9%Third-down rate34.9%
- 73.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.76Points / drive1.27
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 23/42 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 7 | 15 | 51 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 25/38 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Cameron | 10 | 12 | 91 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Bobby Rainey | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.46