2013 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

6·17

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.075
  • 43.4%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.109EPA / dropback-0.074
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.076
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +1.24CPOE-3.79
  • 41.9%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 73.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.27
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00313Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:54843Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:421295Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 2:131341Field goal3–7
CLEQ2 10:48955Missed field goal3–7
CINQ2 7:29724Turnover on downs3–7
CLEQ2 4:3535Punt3–7
CINQ2 3:0936Punt3–7
CLEQ2 2:081156Missed field goal3–7
CINQ3 15:00723Turnover3–7
CLEQ3 11:24415Punt3–7
CINQ3 9:3233Punt3–7
CLEQ3 8:35917Field goal3–10
CINQ3 5:101057Field goal6–10
CLEQ3 0:373-9Punt6–10
CINQ4 14:21734Punt6–10
CLEQ4 11:311291Touchdown6–17
CINQ4 4:54413Turnover6–17
CLEQ4 3:433-1Punt6–17
CINQ4 2:51622Turnover on downs6–17
CLEQ4 1:3900End of half6–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton23/4220601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard10373.70
BenJarvus Green-Ellis6132.20
Andy Dalton4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Gresham35530
A.J. Green715510
Tyler Eifert35390
Giovani Bernard67380
Mohamed Sanu36190
Dane Sanzenbacher1160
Marvin Jones0300

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer25/3826920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee15463.10
Chris Ogbonnaya5275.40
Bobby Rainey691.50
Brian Hoyer471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Cameron1012911
Josh Gordon49710
Travis Benjamin11390
Davone Bess26250
Chris Ogbonnaya55211
Bobby Rainey22200
Gary Barnidge1120
Greg Little0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.46