Closing spread
IND -9.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-4.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.156
- 44.6%Success rate38.3%
- +0.108EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.181
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- -1.44CPOE-4.13
- 37.8%Third-down rate31.0%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.89Points / drive1.03
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/35 | 257 | 2 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2/3 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 3 | 65 | 21.7 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 11 | 100 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Dominique Jones | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 17/32 | 179 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 7 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ebert | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Allen Reisner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.56