2013 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

37·3

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

IND -9.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-4.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.156
  • 44.6%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.108EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.181
  • 7.4%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -1.44CPOE-4.13
  • 37.8%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.03
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
INDQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:17416Turnover0–0
INDQ1 10:1723Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 9:2536Field goal0–3
INDQ1 8:14420Punt0–3
JAXQ1 5:53521Punt0–3
INDQ1 3:261054Field goal3–3
JAXQ2 14:4369Opp touchdown10–3
JAXQ2 11:4839Punt10–3
INDQ2 9:22681Touchdown17–3
JAXQ2 5:5435Punt17–3
INDQ2 4:521144Field goal20–3
JAXQ2 1:3433Punt20–3
INDQ2 0:33419End of half20–3
JAXQ3 15:0033Punt20–3
INDQ3 12:52248Touchdown27–3
JAXQ3 12:153-2Punt27–3
INDQ3 9:571477Touchdown34–3
JAXQ3 1:221253Turnover on downs34–3
INDQ4 12:521137Punt34–3
JAXQ4 5:20216Turnover34–3
INDQ4 4:49637Field goal37–3
JAXQ4 1:53966End of half37–3

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/3525721
Matt Hasselbeck2/33700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown36521.70
Trent Richardson20603.01
Andrew Luck22613.00
T.Y. Hilton263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne5111001
Coby Fleener57771
T.Y. Hilton48450
Darrius Heyward-Bey36330
Dominique Jones11210
Donald Brown22110
Trent Richardson1160

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert17/3217903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew13231.80
Blaine Gabbert2105.00
Jordan Todman242.00
Justin Forsett133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts712610
Ace Sanders48590
Clay Harbor23390
Justin Forsett22100
Maurice Jones-Drew1150
Jeremy Ebert1350
Allen Reisner0100
Denard Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

37.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.56