Closing spread
MIA -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.040
- 39.7%Success rate41.1%
- -0.107EPA / dropback+0.009
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- -3.82CPOE-0.18
- 33.7%Third-down rate35.5%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.33Points / drive1.51
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thad Lewis | 21/32 | 202 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Thad Lewis | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 13 | 61 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 19/37 | 194 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 6 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 5 | 8 | 40 | 2 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.13
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.77