2013 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Thaddeus Lewis

23·21

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.040
  • 39.7%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.107EPA / dropback+0.009
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.138
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -3.82CPOE-0.18
  • 33.7%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.51
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0039Opp touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 13:2738Punt7–0
BUFQ1 12:00612Punt7–0
MIAQ1 9:3433Punt7–0
BUFQ1 8:22644Touchdown14–0
MIAQ1 5:47848Turnover14–0
BUFQ1 2:30633Punt14–0
MIAQ2 14:22662Touchdown14–7
BUFQ2 10:5938Punt14–7
MIAQ2 9:3137Punt14–7
BUFQ2 8:01310Turnover14–7
MIAQ2 6:593-2Missed field goal14–7
BUFQ2 5:50743Field goal17–7
MIAQ2 3:143-1Punt17–7
BUFQ2 1:4738Punt17–7
MIAQ2 1:25675Touchdown17–14
BUFQ2 0:2100End of half17–14
BUFQ3 15:0039Punt17–14
MIAQ3 13:291166Touchdown17–21
BUFQ3 6:461457Field goal20–21
MIAQ4 14:1637Punt20–21
BUFQ4 13:22622Punt20–21
MIAQ4 10:27825Punt20–21
BUFQ4 5:4232Punt20–21
MIAQ4 3:392-14Turnover20–21
BUFQ4 2:48621Field goal23–21
MIAQ4 0:3340Turnover on downs23–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Thad Lewis21/3220201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson11363.31
Tashard Choice6162.70
Thad Lewis5132.60
C.J. Spiller6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson613610
Fred Jackson45490
Trevor Graham22360
Robert Woods34240
Scott Chandler23180
Lee Smith11180
Tashard Choice0100
C.J. Spiller33-40

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill19/3719432

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Thomas12605.00
Lamar Miller9434.80
Mike Wallace11212.00
Ryan Tannehill351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace510760
Brian Hartline611690
Brandon Gibson58402
Charles Clay1371
Lamar Miller1340
Rishard Matthews0100
Daniel Thomas11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.13
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-1.77