2013 · Week 7 · Division

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

27·30

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.105
  • 46.7%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.37CPOE-4.00
  • 37.9%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.25
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001280Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 9:431175Touchdown7–7
NYJQ1 5:58860Opp touchdown14–7
NYJQ1 1:321161Field goal14–10
NEQ2 11:11523Punt14–10
NYJQ2 9:3539Punt14–10
NEQ2 7:49828Touchdown21–10
NYJQ2 5:1531Punt21–10
NEQ2 4:184-2Punt21–10
NYJQ2 3:0744Punt21–10
NEQ2 0:54521Punt21–10
NYJQ2 0:1014End of half21–10
NEQ3 15:002-6Opp touchdown21–17
NEQ3 14:2739Punt21–17
NYJQ3 12:425-10Punt21–17
NEQ3 9:423-3Punt21–17
NYJQ3 8:09857Touchdown21–24
NEQ3 4:333-5Punt21–24
NYJQ3 3:01419Field goal21–27
NEQ3 1:301057Field goal24–27
NYJQ4 12:58930Punt24–27
NEQ4 8:21616Punt24–27
NYJQ4 6:25928Punt24–27
NEQ4 2:101166Field goal27–27
NYJQ4 0:1600End of half27–27
NEOT416Punt27–27
NYJOT1341Field goal27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/4622801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley11504.51
Brandon Bolden8364.51
LeGarrette Blount144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski8171140
Julian Edelman57440
Aaron Dobson37340
Kenbrell Thompkins25160
Austin Collie15100
Brandon Bolden1370
Stevan Ridley2230

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith17/3323311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory341043.10
Geno Smith6325.31
Josh Cribbs3144.70
Bilal Powell362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley810971
David Nelson47800
Jeff Cumberland37410
Stephen Hill15170
Bilal Powell0200
Chris Ivory12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.25