Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.105
- 46.7%Success rate37.6%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.37CPOE-4.00
- 37.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 2.05Points / drive1.25
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/46 | 228 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 17 | 114 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 17/33 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 34 | 104 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 8 | 10 | 97 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.25