Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.062
- 41.1%Success rate46.7%
- +0.009EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.18CPOE-1.37
- 35.5%Third-down rate37.9%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.51Points / drive2.05
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/42 | 192 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 18 | 89 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Egnew | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Brandon Gibson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 13/22 | 116 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dobson | 4 | 5 | 60 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.93