2013 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

17·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -6.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.062
  • 41.1%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.009EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.18CPOE-1.37
  • 35.5%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.05
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:5222Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 12:141140Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 6:3232Punt7–0
MIAQ1 5:15927Punt7–0
NEQ1 1:40613Punt7–0
MIAQ2 14:261058Touchdown14–0
NEQ2 9:551343Field goal14–3
MIAQ2 3:43746Field goal17–3
NEQ2 0:3000End of half17–3
NEQ3 15:003-7Punt17–3
MIAQ3 14:10729Missed field goal17–3
NEQ3 10:13564Touchdown17–10
MIAQ3 8:282-7Turnover17–10
NEQ3 7:43313Touchdown17–17
MIAQ3 6:42519Punt17–17
NEQ3 4:5037Punt17–17
MIAQ3 4:0138Punt17–17
NEQ3 2:24942Field goal17–20
MIAQ3 0:08634Turnover17–20
NEQ4 13:101367Touchdown17–27
MIAQ4 7:141357Missed field goal17–27
NEQ4 2:4239Punt17–27
MIAQ4 1:544-14Turnover17–27
NEQ4 0:4500End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/4219222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller18894.90
Daniel Thomas9475.20
Ryan Tannehill11212.00
Mike Wallace188.00
Charles Clay111.00
Marcus Thigpen1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace310410
Brian Hartline46370
Charles Clay58370
Rishard Matthews36300
Lamar Miller33230
Michael Egnew12110
Daniel Thomas1151
Brandon Gibson1241
Dion Sims1240

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady13/2211611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley14795.61
LeGarrette Blount11464.20
Brandon Bolden8222.81
Tom Brady451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Dobson45601
Rob Gronkowski25270
Danny Amendola36150
Julian Edelman2270
Brandon Bolden2270
Kenbrell Thompkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.93