Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.075
- 36.3%Success rate39.2%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.076
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- -1.63CPOE-3.79
- 36.0%Third-down rate34.9%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.33Points / drive1.27
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 24/41 | 250 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 5 | 9 | 54 | 2 |
| Tandon Doss | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 23/35 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1/2 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 21 | 31 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 7 | 9 | 122 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 4 | 24 | 2 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.35