2013 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

18·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jason Campbell

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • -0.096EPA / play-0.075
  • 36.3%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.003EPA / dropback-0.074
  • -0.263EPA / rush-0.076
  • 6.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -1.63CPOE-3.79
  • 36.0%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.27
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:5835Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:05969Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 8:241042Field goal3–7
CLEQ1 3:38714Punt3–7
BALQ1 0:053-2Punt3–7
CLEQ2 14:03968Touchdown3–14
BALQ2 10:083-2Punt3–14
CLEQ2 8:272-1Turnover3–14
BALQ2 7:5440Punt3–14
CLEQ2 6:3739Punt3–14
BALQ2 5:08515Turnover3–14
CLEQ2 3:064-2Punt3–14
BALQ2 1:01567Touchdown10–14
CLEQ2 0:09210End of half10–14
BALQ3 15:001445Punt10–14
CLEQ3 8:43624Punt10–14
CLEQ3 5:5026Touchdown10–21
BALQ3 5:11623Punt10–21
CLEQ3 1:4837Punt10–21
BALQ4 14:47532Touchdown18–21
CLEQ4 12:09646Punt18–21
BALQ4 10:491021Punt18–21
CLEQ4 6:441462Field goal18–24
BALQ4 0:14232End of half18–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco24/4125021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Flacco3258.30
Ray Rice11171.50
Bernard Pierce6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith58780
Marlon Brown59542
Tandon Doss24290
Jacoby Jones48270
Deonte Thompson34240
Ray Rice34210
Dallas Clark11140
Ed Dickson1330

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell23/3526230
Brandon Weeden1/2-200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee21311.50
Jason Campbell4205.00
Fozzy Whittaker2115.50
Josh Gordon11010.00
MarQueis Gray111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little791220
Josh Gordon37440
Chris Ogbonnaya56390
Davone Bess34242
Fozzy Whittaker34130
Armanti Edwards11100
Gary Barnidge1141
Jordan Cameron1540

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.35