2013 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

27·24

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.109
  • 44.6%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.108EPA / dropback-0.116
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.099
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.44CPOE-3.08
  • 37.8%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.07
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00373Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 14:00450Missed field goal0–7
HOUQ1 12:00525Turnover on downs0–7
INDQ1 9:12617Punt0–7
HOUQ1 6:18457Touchdown0–14
INDQ1 4:13537Punt0–14
HOUQ1 1:53623Punt0–14
INDQ2 14:473-13Punt0–14
HOUQ2 13:07824Missed field goal0–14
INDQ2 8:0835Punt0–14
HOUQ2 6:50420Punt0–14
INDQ2 5:004-5Field goal3–14
HOUQ2 3:30772Touchdown3–21
INDQ2 0:34211End of half3–21
INDQ3 15:00926Field goal6–21
HOUQ3 11:541067Field goal6–24
INDQ3 4:251468Touchdown12–24
HOUQ3 0:05855Missed field goal12–24
INDQ4 10:32267Touchdown19–24
HOUQ4 9:46513Punt19–24
INDQ4 6:09652Touchdown27–24
HOUQ4 4:00424Punt27–24
INDQ4 1:553-1Punt27–24
HOUQ4 0:44330Missed field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck18/4027130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown6498.20
Trent Richardson8202.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton7121213
Coby Fleener35640
Trent Richardson23330
Griff Whalen39320
Darrius Heyward-Bey16110
LaVon Brazill1290
Donald Brown0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum20/3435030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate22813.70
Dennis Johnson8364.50
Case Keenum3268.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson9132293
DeAndre Hopkins36540
Garrett Graham46460
DeVier Posey34230
Arian Foster0100
Ben Tate12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.64