Closing spread
IND -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.109
- 44.6%Success rate40.7%
- +0.108EPA / dropback-0.116
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.44CPOE-3.08
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.4%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.89Points / drive1.07
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 18/40 | 271 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 12 | 121 | 3 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 3 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 20/34 | 350 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 9 | 13 | 229 | 3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.64