Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.023EPA / play-0.076
- 42.0%Success rate39.7%
- +0.073EPA / dropback-0.107
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.037
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.44CPOE-3.82
- 34.4%Third-down rate33.7%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.79Points / drive1.33
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/29 | 124 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 7 | 12 | 67 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 6 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Tuel | 18/39 | 229 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 12 | 116 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Tuel | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Easley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.26