2013 · Week 9

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

23·13

Bills

Buffalo

QB Jeff Tuel

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 36°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBills
  • +0.023EPA / play-0.076
  • 42.0%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback-0.107
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.037
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.44CPOE-3.82
  • 34.4%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.33
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BUF
KCQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:23951Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:04934Punt0–0
BUFQ1 4:02688Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 1:52930Punt0–7
BUFQ2 11:5710Turnover0–7
KCQ2 11:49932Field goal3–7
BUFQ2 7:301376Field goal3–10
KCQ2 1:47415Punt3–10
BUFQ2 0:3512End of half3–10
BUFQ3 15:00879Opp touchdown10–10
BUFQ3 10:58944Turnover on downs10–10
KCQ3 6:43733Field goal13–10
BUFQ3 3:571253Field goal13–13
KCQ3 0:2036Punt13–13
BUFQ4 14:103-2Opp touchdown20–13
BUFQ4 12:47830Punt20–13
KCQ4 10:32525Punt20–13
BUFQ4 7:3034Punt20–13
KCQ4 6:29632Field goal23–13
BUFQ4 2:13745Turnover on downs23–13
KCQ4 1:2700End of half23–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/2912400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles17905.30
Alex Smith471.80
Dexter McCluster1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe712670
Donnie Avery35220
Anthony Fasano11200
Dexter McCluster2490
Jamaal Charles6760

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Tuel18/3922912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller121169.70
Fred Jackson16774.80
Tashard Choice5173.40
Jeff Tuel3175.70
Steve Johnson11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin24641
Robert Woods48440
C.J. Spiller23390
Steve Johnson57360
Scott Chandler39260
Fred Jackson12220
Tashard Choice0100
Marcus Easley0100
Trevor Graham14-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.21
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.26