2013 · Week 9

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

31·55

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.062
  • 42.4%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.096EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.173EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +3.30CPOE-1.37
  • 37.6%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.05
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. NE are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NE
PITQ1 15:00518Turnover0–0
NEQ1 12:0534Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:2039Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:071192Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ1 4:1210Turnover0–6
NEQ1 4:06134Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 4:001360Turnover on downs0–7
NEQ2 12:36667Touchdown0–14
PITQ2 10:30668Field goal3–14
NEQ2 7:36777Field goal3–17
PITQ2 3:51471Touchdown10–17
NEQ2 1:551144Touchdown10–24
PITQ2 0:1000End of half10–24
NEQ3 15:00526Turnover10–24
PITQ3 12:56536Touchdown17–24
NEQ3 11:0238Punt17–24
PITQ3 9:28656Touchdown24–24
NEQ3 7:101065Field goal24–27
PITQ3 2:39525Punt24–27
NEQ3 0:24534Touchdown24–34
PITQ4 13:463-12Punt24–34
NEQ4 12:44939Touchdown24–41
PITQ4 9:161080Touchdown31–41
NEQ4 6:15293Touchdown31–48
PITQ4 5:15428Turnover31–48
NEQ4 3:19228Touchdown31–55
PITQ4 2:41941Turnover on downs31–55
NEQ4 0:3300End of half31–55

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger28/4840042

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell16744.60
Jonathan Dwyer13030.00
Felix Jones155.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders611980
Jerricho Cotchery78963
Antonio Brown59711
Le'Veon Bell410650
Heath Miller45430
Jonathan Dwyer11230
Felix Jones1340
Derek Moye0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3343240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley261154.42
LeGarrette Blount5479.41
Brandon Bolden33612.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski9101431
Aaron Dobson591302
Danny Amendola441221
Michael Hoomanawanui12170
Julian Edelman14110
Stevan Ridley3490

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.07