Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.062
- 42.4%Success rate46.7%
- +0.096EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.173EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.30CPOE-1.37
- 37.6%Third-down rate37.9%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.82Points / drive2.05
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 28/48 | 400 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 7 | 8 | 96 | 3 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 9 | 71 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Derek Moye | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/33 | 432 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 26 | 115 | 4.4 | 2 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 9 | 10 | 143 | 1 |
| Aaron Dobson | 5 | 9 | 130 | 2 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.07