Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
56
Model margin
-1.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. SD are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/36 | 330 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 10 | 108 | 3 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 96 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 8 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.37
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.