Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
56
Model margin
-1.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutChamp BaileyCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableDuke IhenachoSAnkle· Limited
- ProbableChris KuperGAnkle· Full
- ProbableDanny TrevathanLBRibs· Full
- ProbableEric DeckerWRToe· Full
- ProbableJ.D. WaltonCAnkle· Full
- ProbableJoel DreessenTEKnee· Full
- ProbableJulius ThomasTEAnkle· Full
- ProbableKnowshon MorenoRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableManuel RamirezCKnee· Full
- ProbableOrlando FranklinTAnkle· Full
- ProbablePeyton ManningQBAnkle· Full
- ProbableWes WelkerWRAnkle· Full
Chargers
- OutMike RemmersTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- QuestionableJarret JohnsonLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableLawrence GuyDEToe· DNP
- ProbableChad RinehartGToe· Limited
- ProbableDonald ButlerLBGroin· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPright Knee· Full
- ProbableTourek WilliamsLBThumb· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:15 | 3 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:18 | 15 | 74 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 14:58 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 13:15 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 12:03 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:04 | 4 | 37 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| DEN | Q2 9:05 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| LAC | Q2 6:38 | 11 | 46 | Missed field goal | 14–6 |
| DEN | Q2 1:38 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| LAC | Q2 0:13 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–6 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 28–6 |
| LAC | Q3 11:34 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–6 |
| DEN | Q3 10:09 | 2 | -9 | Turnover | 28–6 |
| LAC | Q3 9:30 | 2 | 11 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| DEN | Q3 8:38 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 28–13 |
| LAC | Q3 6:22 | 9 | 17 | Punt | 28–13 |
| DEN | Q3 1:09 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–13 |
| LAC | Q3 0:29 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 28–20 |
| DEN | Q4 10:42 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 28–20 |
| LAC | Q4 6:43 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 28–20 |
| DEN | Q4 3:26 | 8 | 39 | End of half | 28–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/36 | 330 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 10 | 108 | 3 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 96 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 8 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.37
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.