Closing spread
CIN -4
Total
40
Model margin
+5.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.031
- 39.2%Success rate43.4%
- -0.074EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.087
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -3.79CPOE+1.24
- 34.9%Third-down rate41.9%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
- 1.27Points / drive1.76
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 27/56 | 248 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 8 | 69 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 15 | 125 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 6 | 12 | 30 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 6 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Tyms | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 13/27 | 93 | 3 | 2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.82