Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.020
- 44.6%Success rate42.3%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.124
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.44CPOE+1.14
- 37.8%Third-down rate41.0%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.89Points / drive1.79
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 23/36 | 232 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 14 | 80 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Andrew Luck | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 8 | 10 | 107 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/28 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 10 | 10 | 91 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 9 | 12 | 80 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36