2013 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

30·27

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

+1.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.020
  • 44.6%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.108EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.124
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.44CPOE+1.14
  • 37.8%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.79
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:00880Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 11:3634Punt0–7
TENQ1 9:571168Touchdown0–14
INDQ1 4:061365Field goal3–14
TENQ2 11:2639Punt3–14
INDQ2 9:46415Punt3–14
TENQ2 8:411132Field goal3–17
INDQ2 2:321259Field goal6–17
INDQ3 15:001174Touchdown13–17
TENQ3 8:3300Touchdown13–17
INDQ3 8:27220Touchdown20–17
TENQ3 7:3631Punt20–17
INDQ3 5:16826Field goal23–17
TENQ3 1:271150Field goal23–20
INDQ4 11:39441Punt23–20
TENQ4 9:53520Punt23–20
INDQ4 7:411164Touchdown30–20
TENQ4 3:01480Touchdown30–27
INDQ4 1:5400End of half30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck23/3623200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown14805.72
Andrew Luck9313.41
Trent Richardson8222.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener8101070
T.Y. Hilton59440
Trent Richardson55310
Donald Brown11140
Weslye Saunders13110
Darrius Heyward-Bey13100
Griff Whalen1360
LaVon Brazill0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/2822210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson17865.12
Ryan Fitzpatrick4266.50
Shonn Greene3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker1010911
Kendall Wright912800
Nate Washington23530
Craig Stevens0100
Justin Hunter0100
Chris Johnson11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36