Closing spread
DEN -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.023EPA / play+0.205
- 42.0%Success rate50.2%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.346
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.029
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- -2.44CPOE+6.21
- 34.4%Third-down rate47.1%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
- 1.79Points / drive2.85
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/45 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 14 | 57 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Donnie Avery | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/40 | 323 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 27 | 79 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 13 | 121 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 8 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 5 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.60