2013 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

17·27

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.023EPA / play+0.205
  • 42.0%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback+0.346
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.029
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -2.44CPOE+6.21
  • 34.4%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.85
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
KCQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DENQ1 14:04712Field goal0–3
KCQ1 12:3349Punt0–3
DENQ1 11:0539Punt0–3
KCQ1 9:5034Punt0–3
DENQ1 8:18624Turnover0–3
KCQ1 5:3612Turnover0–3
DENQ1 5:28584Touchdown0–10
KCQ1 3:031264Touchdown7–10
DENQ2 13:231274Touchdown7–17
KCQ2 9:051269Field goal10–17
DENQ2 2:55946Missed field goal10–17
KCQ2 0:32432End of half10–17
DENQ3 15:0031Punt10–17
KCQ3 13:5833Punt10–17
DENQ3 12:51614Punt10–17
KCQ3 11:06620Punt10–17
DENQ3 8:06514Punt10–17
KCQ3 6:3133Punt10–17
DENQ3 5:24665Touchdown10–24
KCQ3 2:221061Punt10–24
DENQ4 11:48962Field goal10–27
KCQ4 7:06955Touchdown17–27
DENQ4 4:56617Punt17–27
KCQ4 3:38525Turnover on downs17–27
DENQ4 2:5035Punt17–27
KCQ4 0:553-6End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/4523020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles16784.90
Alex Smith55210.40
Knile Davis3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe414571
Dexter McCluster58530
Sean McGrath23400
Anthony Fasano44371
Donnie Avery13200
Knile Davis11110
Jamaal Charles28-60

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning24/4032310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno27792.90
Montee Ball8253.12
Peyton Manning100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas5131210
Wes Welker810720
Eric Decker56710
Julius Thomas35431
Montee Ball34160
Andre Caldwell0100
Knowshon Moreno0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.60