Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.105EPA / play-0.076
- 37.6%Success rate39.7%
- -0.105EPA / dropback-0.107
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.037
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.00CPOE-3.82
- 38.8%Third-down rate33.7%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.25Points / drive1.33
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 8/23 | 103 | 0 | 3 |
| Matt Simms | 4/6 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 15 | 98 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Kellen Winslow | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 20/28 | 245 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 13 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 6 | 9 | 81 | 1 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 4 | 74 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.41