2013 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

14·37

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 62°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.105EPA / play-0.076
  • 37.6%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback-0.107
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.037
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.00CPOE-3.82
  • 38.8%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.33
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
NYJQ1 15:00828Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:1339Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:23435Missed field goal0–0
BUFQ1 5:52521Punt0–0
NYJQ1 3:3437Punt0–0
BUFQ1 1:20941Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 12:403-2Punt0–3
BUFQ2 11:071364Touchdown0–10
NYJQ2 4:052-15Turnover0–10
BUFQ2 3:5324Touchdown0–17
NYJQ2 3:1722Turnover0–17
BUFQ2 2:2633Field goal0–20
NYJQ2 1:1532Punt0–20
BUFQ2 0:2000End of half0–20
BUFQ3 15:001023Punt0–20
NYJQ3 10:13740Touchdown7–20
BUFQ3 7:1837Punt7–20
NYJQ3 6:0732Punt7–20
BUFQ3 5:07283Touchdown7–27
NYJQ3 4:402-3Turnover7–27
BUFQ3 3:5232Punt7–27
NYJQ3 2:58618Opp touchdown7–34
NYJQ3 1:1436Punt7–34
BUFQ4 14:5031Punt7–34
NYJQ4 12:55662Touchdown14–34
BUFQ4 9:36856Field goal14–37
NYJQ4 4:02685Turnover on downs14–37
BUFQ4 1:5712End of half14–37

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith8/2310303
Matt Simms4/66010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory15986.51
Bilal Powell5275.40
Josh Cribbs294.50
Geno Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes28710
Greg Salas22320
Jeff Cumberland34251
Kellen Winslow11170
David Nelson13120
Bilal Powell1110
Chris Ivory0100
Stephen Hill0700

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel20/2824520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson12342.80
Marquise Goodwin11717.00
EJ Manuel791.30
C.J. Spiller1360.50
Tashard Choice210.50
Trevor Graham1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin69811
Trevor Graham24741
Scott Chandler23400
Chris Hogan34290
C.J. Spiller22100
Fred Jackson2250
Lee Smith1210
Tashard Choice1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.41