2013 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

17·13

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -7.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.115EPA / play+0.007
  • 47.2%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.209EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.137
  • 9.5%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +5.36CPOE+2.86
  • 45.1%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 64.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.70
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
NOQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:041061Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 8:481578Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 1:17728Field goal7–10
NOQ2 12:20580Touchdown14–10
ATLQ2 10:121389Field goal14–13
NOQ2 2:4139Punt14–13
ATLQ2 1:47520Punt14–13
NOQ2 0:34444End of half14–13
ATLQ3 15:00611Punt14–13
NOQ3 11:53425Punt14–13
ATLQ3 10:0338Punt14–13
NOQ3 8:32855Field goal17–13
ATLQ3 4:371270Turnover17–13
NOQ4 13:05950Punt17–13
ATLQ4 7:531157Missed field goal17–13
NOQ4 2:19733Turnover on downs17–13
ATLQ4 0:05111End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/3327820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas10737.30
Mark Ingram9323.60
Khiry Robinson144.00
Drew Brees4-6-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham571001
Pierre Thomas56570
Marques Colston46400
Lance Moore22220
Kenny Stills23220
Robert Meachem13180
Josh Hill23160
Travaris Cadet1120
Benjamin Watson1211

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/3929200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson16633.91
Antone Smith11111.00
Matt Ryan2105.00
Jacquizz Rodgers372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas911790
Darius Johnson68670
Tony Gonzalez46430
Jacquizz Rodgers23310
Roddy White22240
Steven Jackson34160
Drew Davis1170
Levine Toilolo1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.24