Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.115EPA / play+0.007
- 47.2%Success rate44.7%
- +0.209EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.137
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.3%
- +5.36CPOE+2.86
- 45.1%Third-down rate42.4%
- 64.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.21Points / drive1.70
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/33 | 278 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 10 | 73 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 7 | 100 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/39 | 292 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 9 | 11 | 79 | 0 |
| Darius Johnson | 6 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.24