2013 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

27·11

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jason Campbell

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 20°F · wind 31mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+0.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.075
  • 42.4%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.096EPA / dropback-0.074
  • -0.173EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +3.30CPOE-3.79
  • 37.6%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.27
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
PITQ1 15:00845Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 10:03639Field goal3–3
PITQ1 7:21522Punt3–3
CLEQ1 4:26939Punt3–3
PITQ2 13:2238Punt3–3
CLEQ2 11:38414Punt3–3
PITQ2 9:411049Punt3–3
CLEQ2 4:33414Punt3–3
PITQ2 3:17252Touchdown10–3
CLEQ2 2:33434Turnover10–3
PITQ2 1:43640Field goal13–3
CLEQ2 0:0700End of half13–3
CLEQ3 15:0039Punt13–3
PITQ3 13:38832Turnover on downs13–3
CLEQ3 9:3458Turnover19–3
PITQ3 7:4614Touchdown20–3
CLEQ3 7:431347Missed field goal20–3
PITQ3 2:18511Punt20–3
CLEQ3 0:4934Punt20–3
PITQ4 14:451227Punt20–3
CLEQ4 6:54447Turnover20–3
PITQ4 6:1538Punt26–3
CLEQ4 4:3410Opp touchdown27–3
CLEQ4 4:27678Touchdown27–11
PITQ4 3:1337Punt27–11
CLEQ4 2:491035Turnover on downs27–11
PITQ4 1:0300End of half27–11

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3421720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell23803.50
Felix Jones294.50
Jonathan Dwyer671.20
Ben Roethlisberger2-3-1.50
Antonio Brown1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown610921
Emmanuel Sanders67521
Heath Miller56410
Le'Veon Bell25180
Will Johnson1190
Felix Jones1140
Jonathan Dwyer1210
Jerricho Cotchery0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden13/3020911
Jason Campbell14/2212400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ogbonnaya4266.50
Fozzy Whittaker6162.70
Willis McGahee4123.00
Brandon Weeden122.00
Jason Campbell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon14172371
Jordan Cameron310320
Davone Bess58270
Greg Little27170
Chris Ogbonnaya25150
Fozzy Whittaker1550

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.29