Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+0.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.075
- 42.4%Success rate39.2%
- +0.096EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.173EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.30CPOE-3.79
- 37.6%Third-down rate34.9%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.82Points / drive1.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/34 | 217 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 13/30 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 14/22 | 124 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 14 | 17 | 237 | 1 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 10 | 32 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.29