Closing spread
DEN -5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.205EPA / play+0.023
- 50.2%Success rate42.0%
- +0.346EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.029EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- +6.21CPOE-2.44
- 47.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 81.1%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 2.85Points / drive1.79
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/35 | 403 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montee Ball | 13 | 117 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 15 | 18 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 8 | 12 | 174 | 4 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 6 | 106 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 5 | 72 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 26/42 | 293 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.18