2013 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

35·28

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -5

Total

50.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • +0.205EPA / play+0.023
  • 50.2%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.346EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.029EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +6.21CPOE-2.44
  • 47.1%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 81.1%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.79
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
KCQ1 15:001177Turnover0–0
DENQ1 8:50633Turnover0–0
KCQ1 6:51783Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 2:41789Touchdown7–13
KCQ2 14:5300Touchdown7–14
DENQ2 14:4033Turnover7–14
KCQ2 13:09627Touchdown7–21
DENQ2 10:57417Punt7–21
KCQ2 9:0439Punt7–21
DENQ2 7:34970Touchdown14–21
KCQ2 4:1636Punt14–21
DENQ2 1:5030Punt14–21
KCQ2 1:28536Punt14–21
DENQ2 0:2512End of half14–21
DENQ3 15:00780Touchdown21–21
KCQ3 11:51533Punt21–21
DENQ3 8:56592Touchdown28–21
KCQ3 6:4800Punt28–21
KCQ3 6:48313Punt28–21
KCQ3 5:1610Punt28–21
DENQ3 5:011176Touchdown35–21
KCQ4 14:161885Touchdown35–28
DENQ4 6:321048Punt35–28
KCQ4 3:321083Turnover on downs35–28
DENQ4 1:46128End of half35–28

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/3540352

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montee Ball131179.00
Knowshon Moreno15181.20
Peyton Manning3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker8121744
Demaryius Thomas361060
Knowshon Moreno45721
Wes Welker35380
Andre Caldwell1140
Montee Ball1240
Jacob Tamme1330
Virgil Green1120

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith26/4229321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles19934.91
Alex Smith44611.50
Knile Davis12020.00
Dexter McCluster100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe37560
Dexter McCluster56430
Junior Hemingway33421
A.J. Jenkins34350
Anthony Fasano35281
Jamaal Charles22270
Knile Davis22180
Donnie Avery26170
Sean McGrath13110
Cyrus Gray1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.18