2013 · Week 13

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

34·31

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

49.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTexans
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.109
  • 46.7%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.116
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.099
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.37CPOE-3.08
  • 37.9%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.07
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:1434Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:48552Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 8:44625Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 5:42416Field goal0–10
NEQ1 4:10655Touchdown7–10
HOUQ1 1:251153Turnover7–10
NEQ2 10:561128Missed field goal7–10
HOUQ2 4:50755Touchdown7–17
NEQ2 1:47634Punt7–17
HOUQ2 0:2800End of half7–17
NEQ3 15:00578Touchdown14–17
HOUQ3 12:4139Punt14–17
NEQ3 11:10773Touchdown21–17
HOUQ3 8:061081Touchdown21–24
NEQ3 2:11981Touchdown28–24
HOUQ4 13:09380Touchdown28–31
NEQ4 11:35840Field goal31–31
HOUQ4 7:1630Punt31–31
NEQ4 6:44632Field goal34–31
HOUQ4 3:12623Turnover on downs34–31
NEQ4 1:5933Punt34–31
HOUQ4 0:0720End of half34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/4137121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount12443.71
Shane Vereen10383.80
Brandon Bolden320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski6121271
Julian Edelman9121010
Danny Amendola55540
Shane Vereen56371
Brandon Bolden11180
Kenbrell Thompkins13160
Josh Boyce1160

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum15/3027201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate221024.63
Dennis Johnson3134.30
Case Keenum362.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson891210
DeAndre Hopkins25770
Garrett Graham311360
Keshawn Martin11270
Dennis Johnson12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.16