Closing spread
NE -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.109
- 46.7%Success rate40.7%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.116
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.099
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.37CPOE-3.08
- 37.9%Third-down rate36.4%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 2.05Points / drive1.07
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/41 | 371 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 12 | 127 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 12 | 101 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Boyce | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 15/30 | 272 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 3 |
| Dennis Johnson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 9 | 121 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 3 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.16