2013 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

14·22

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • +0.020EPA / play+0.047
  • 42.3%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.14CPOE-1.44
  • 41.0%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.89
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
TENQ1 13:4534Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:181159Field goal0–3
TENQ1 6:09521Punt0–3
INDQ1 3:42524Field goal0–6
TENQ1 2:331175Touchdown7–6
INDQ2 13:13831Field goal7–9
TENQ2 10:26517Punt7–9
INDQ2 8:0931Punt7–9
TENQ2 6:44829Punt7–9
INDQ2 2:07511Punt7–9
TENQ2 0:53425Turnover7–9
INDQ2 0:26435Field goal7–12
TENQ3 15:001475Touchdown14–12
INDQ3 7:294-4Punt14–12
TENQ3 5:213-12Turnover14–12
INDQ3 3:4731Field goal14–15
TENQ3 2:33419Turnover14–15
INDQ3 1:1336Punt14–15
TENQ3 0:33729Punt14–15
INDQ4 11:3233Punt14–15
TENQ4 10:30619Punt14–15
INDQ4 8:081197Touchdown14–22
TENQ4 1:56546Turnover14–22
INDQ4 0:2400End of half14–22

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/3720113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson18693.80
Ryan Fitzpatrick8546.81
Shonn Greene10393.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington56810
Kendall Wright611770
Chris Johnson67321
Justin Hunter1590
Delanie Walker1250
Shonn Greene1110
Taylor Thompson0300
Collin Mooney11-40

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck17/3220001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown14543.91
Andrew Luck5428.40
Trent Richardson5193.80
Darrius Heyward-Bey1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener35500
T.Y. Hilton57460
LaVon Brazill38420
Darrius Heyward-Bey15230
Donald Brown23100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.62