Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play+0.047
- 42.3%Success rate44.6%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.14CPOE-1.44
- 41.0%Third-down rate37.8%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.89
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/37 | 201 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 6 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Mooney | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 17/32 | 200 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 3 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.62