2013 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

3·25

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -6

Total

47

Model margin

+5.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • -0.109EPA / play+0.047
  • 40.7%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.116EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -3.08CPOE-1.44
  • 36.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.89
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
INDQ1 15:001170Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:3137Punt0–7
INDQ1 8:03749Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 4:13631Field goal3–7
INDQ1 1:46622Punt3–7
HOUQ2 14:1727Turnover3–7
INDQ2 13:293-2Field goal3–10
HOUQ2 12:00625Punt3–10
INDQ2 9:14550Touchdown3–17
HOUQ2 7:031051Turnover3–17
INDQ2 2:55519Field goal3–20
HOUQ2 1:44821Punt3–20
INDQ2 0:0700End of half3–20
HOUQ3 15:0036Punt3–20
INDQ3 13:3536Field goal3–23
HOUQ3 12:27411Punt3–23
INDQ3 9:45727Punt3–23
HOUQ3 5:4936Punt3–23
INDQ3 4:27517Punt3–25
HOUQ3 1:591-7Safety3–25
INDQ3 1:5345Turnover on downs3–25
HOUQ4 14:563-2Punt3–25
INDQ4 12:56319Punt3–25
HOUQ4 10:49518Punt3–25
INDQ4 8:12532Punt3–25
HOUQ4 5:05854Turnover on downs3–25
INDQ4 2:46618Punt3–25
HOUQ4 1:04311End of half3–25

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum18/3416802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate16724.50
Deji Karim4215.30
Dennis Johnson4123.00
Case Keenum122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Griffin66620
DeAndre Hopkins35520
Ben Tate36200
Andre Johnson410180
Keshawn Martin13130
Dennis Johnson1230
Deji Karim0100
Lestar Jean0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck19/3218021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson19643.40
Donald Brown5387.60
Andrew Luck5295.80
Tashard Choice5183.60
Da'Rick Rogers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton812780
Griff Whalen45451
Trent Richardson46381
Da'Rick Rogers26230
Coby Fleener0100
Jack Doyle12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.06
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.38