Closing spread
IND -6
Total
47
Model margin
+5.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play+0.047
- 40.7%Success rate44.6%
- -0.116EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- -3.08CPOE-1.44
- 36.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.07Points / drive1.89
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 18/34 | 168 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Griffin | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 10 | 18 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 19/32 | 180 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Da'Rick Rogers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 12 | 78 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 4 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Da'Rick Rogers | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.06
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.38