Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.040
- 46.7%Success rate41.1%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.009
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.37CPOE-0.18
- 37.9%Third-down rate35.5%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 2.05Points / drive1.51
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/55 | 364 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 13 | 19 | 139 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 10 | 14 | 131 | 0 |
| Josh Boyce | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 25/37 | 312 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 6 | 9 | 105 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Michael Egnew | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04